Subject to Change, version 2.0

The insurgency in Iraq is "in the last throes," Vice President Dick Cheney says, and he predicts that the fighting will end before the Bush administration leaves office.

In a wide-ranging interview Monday on CNN's "Larry King Live," Cheney cited the recent push by Iraqi forces to crack down on insurgent activity in Baghdad and reports that the most-wanted terrorist leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had been wounded.

The vice president said he expected the war would end during President Bush's second term, which ends in 2009.

The death toll for American troops in Iraq rose in May to the highest level since January, with the U.S. military saying Tuesday that insurgents have doubled their number of daily attacks since April [...]

At least 77 U.S. troops were killed in May, according to a count of deaths announced by the military. That is the highest toll since 107 Americans were killed in January. It marked the second straight monthly increase since 36 U.S. troops died in March, among the lowest tolls of the war.

Lt. Col. Steve Boylan, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said insurgents are staging about 70 attacks nationwide per day [...]

In the recent spike in violence, insurgents also have aggressively targeted Iraqi security forces and civilians. Boylan said more than 600 Iraqis were killed or wounded in May [...]

"The reality is we have discovered, despite all our propaganda, that we are facing a very tough, resilient and smart adversary," defense analyst Daniel Goure of the Lexington Institute said.

Goure said rebels have continuously changed, updated and modified tactics, dumping those that no longer worked. Goure also faulted U.S. forces for being slow to cut off the supply of bullets, bombs, money and recruits coming over the border from Syria.

The insurgency took some time off to reload, recruit, refresh, and evaluate its tactics. It evolved, and has struck back with ferocity. And the thing to remember is that most attacks aren't directed at US forces. They are almost irrelevent to the resistance at this point. They are stricking at Iraqi security forces.

Because without an effective security apparatus, the Iraqi government cannot survive on its own. And the longer the insurgents can drag this thing out, bleeding our guys gradually, the closer they will be to their goals -- an American withdrawal and installation of an Islamic regime.

And they'll accomplish that goal by default. Because as I've said to the point of hoarseness the past few weeks -- we don't have the troops to keep this thing going. And the cheerleading War Pundits, War Preachers, War Politicians, and 101st Fighting Keyboardists refuse to either 1) serve , 2) urge their followers to serve, or 3) even pay for this damn thing with new taxes.

So we get withdrawal, leading to insurgent victory, or we get a draft. And nothing will kill this war effort more surely than even hints of a draft.

Fine mess they've gotten into. And living in a fantasy world, where insurgent activity is a signal to Bush that the rebels are "losing", or where Cheney claims the insurgents are in their "death throes", will do nothing to either win this war, or support our men and women stuck in that hell hole.