Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Will the Republicans on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee end up deciding to recommend to the White House that the Bolton nomination be withdrawn? It's being hinted at in several pieces tonight that show Chafee again wavering. The SFRC has... [War and Piece] 10:54:23 PM     Are Bush's hands tied on Bolton, from the right? So suggests Larry Sabato in the latest from the NYT/IHT:"The nomination is very troubled, very troubled," said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. But he said... [War and Piece] 10:54:05 PM     10 years later . And you may ask yourself, Well, how did I get here? How did we reach the point, as a nation, where treat the terrorists in our midst as "anomalies" -- despite their long record of wreaking havoc in our own back yards -- while embarking on a global "war ... [Orcinus] 9:11:43 PM     The Lessons of Munich. On Tuesday, in what appeared to be an effort to assuage the concerns of some Republicans that ending judicial filibusters would open the door to ending filibusters on legislation, Dr. Frist insisted that was not the case. "If I must act to bring fairness back to the judicial nomination process," he said in a statement, "I will not act in any way to impact the rights of colleagues when it comes to legislation." New York Times As Vote on Filibuster Nears, GOP Senators Face Mounting Pressure April 20, 2005 Chamberlain bid a hearty farewell to the Fuehrer. He said he had the feeling that a relationship of confidence had grown up between himself and the Fuehrer as a result of the conversations of the last few days . . . The Fuehrer thanked Chamberlain for his words and told him that he had similar hopes. As he had already stated several times, the Czech problem was the last territorial demand which he had to make in Europe. William L. Shirer The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich 1960 [Whiskey Bar] 9:06:36 PM     Why Medicine Sucks in '96*. In a post attacking nationalized health care, Sebastian Holsclaw says something that's simply wrong: It takes a lot of work to become a doctor. It takes a lot of time and effort. Few people are going to put the... [Ezra Klein] 4:42:34 PM     The Health of Nations: Oh, Canada!.  Next on our tour of health care systems would have to come Canada. I've been debating whether or not to do them because their setup is so well-known, on the other hand, it's also something of an anomaly that's... [Ezra Klein] 4:41:18 PM     The Health of Nations: England. Welcome to the second installment of The Health of Nations (though it's the first one to sport a clever title). I'm your host, Ezra, and I'll be taking you on a deadly-dull tour through England's health care system. An... [Ezra Klein] 4:39:42 PM     Incentives. Jesse's got a great swipe at those who'd deny women the morning after pill: Does anybody here know why the morning-after pill has a 72-hour window? Anyone? Well, you see, when the mommy half and the daddy half get... [Ezra Klein] 4:38:33 PM     Health Care: France.  Because the blogs are populated by that rarest of above-ground breeds, the policy nerd, there's been a lot of talk lately about the health care structures of various other countries, how they stack up with ours, and why we... [Ezra Klein] 4:37:38 PM     "Keep the Government Away From My Medicare!". Kevin does some digging and finds that the poor and the elderly -- the two groups that rely primarily on government-run program for their health care -- are way more satisfied than the rest of us. He finds this... [Ezra Klein] 4:36:56 PM     Federal Reserve's Report on the US Economy. The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book today at 2PM ET. To create the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve compiles economic information from all the Federal Reserve Districts, then reports the information to the Federal Reserve governors. The Federal Reserve Governors use the information contained in the survey at their meetings where the governors set interest rate policy. Prices and Wages "Reports from many Districts suggested that upward price pressures have strengthened, although actual increases to date in vendor prices and selling prices have generally remained moderate. Much of the pressure derives from energy costs, although contacts cited the lower dollar and rising costs of building materials as well. Most Districts said manufacturers, retailers, or services firms were able to pass at least a portion of cost increases along to their customers. However, only Chicago and Dallas suggested that some contacts have raised prices enough to increase margins or profits. In two-thirds of the Districts, retail or tourism contacts expressed concern that high energy prices were already, or could soon be, damping consumer demand. Distribution (shipping, trucking, freight, delivery) firms and utilities shared similar apprehensions, having imposed fuel surcharges in many cases, according to Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis. As noted above, manufacturers also mentioned rising energy costs. San Francisco stated that increasing costs have prompted manufacturers to "keep production as close as possible to demand," and Dallas indicated that uncertainty about energy prices has added caution to the outlook for business activity." Currently, inflation is the main concern of the Fed. They are attempting to strike a balance with interest rate policies that are low enough for economic growth, but high enough to thwart inflation’s progress. This information suggests that inflation is already starting to ripple through the economy, as businesses are able to pass on some of their increased costs to consumers by raising prices. A troubling aspect of this report is the possible negative impact of high energy prices on consumer spending. Consumer spending is responsible for 2/3 of US economic activity. Any slowdown in this area may have a disproportionately large impact on overall GDP. Additionally, summer is obviously important for domestic tourism, so any negative impact in this area might hurt regions dependant on tourism for a vast majority of their business income. However, current consumer spending remains strong, as the same report states “The majority of Districts experienced improving retail sales overall, but several showed flat or disappointing results.” Manufacturing and Service Industries Both of these sectors appear to be on solid ground, as the BB reports In general, firms in the service sector enjoyed a moderate increase in activity…The updates on manufacturing were largely positive…. Districts reported strong or rising demand for various durable goods. Recent earnings releases bolster this statement, as there have been some solid earnings reports from a variety of publicly traded firms. However, the report does warn again of possible inflationary pressures: “Manufacturers in all Districts were reportedly facing rising costs for a variety of inputs, most notably energy, transportation, petrochemicals, and other petroleum-based products…. Overall, manufacturers' output prices appear to be rising modestly”. In summation, aside from inflationary pressures moving through the economy, it appears things are going fairly well with the economy. Businesses are growing modestly and the consumer is spending enough to keep the economy moving. My guess is this report will lead to another 25 BP increase at the May Fed meeting. Complete Federal Reserve Beige Book [BOPnews] 4:08:47 PM     Stout and Stocky is Strong. As a person who is naturally broad about the shoulders and on the stout side of fit I am glad to finally hear some sense from studies of healthiness. According to the NYT scientists are reporting that being mildly overweight is actually healthy for you. Well thank you science for finally coming to the conclusion that nature for a long time has made obvious. [BOPnews] 4:06:27 PM     Double Plus Ungood in Iraq. Juan Cole reports: Informed Comment: A tearful member of the Iraqi parliament, Fattah al-Shaikh, stood up before other MPs and told the story of how he was attacked and detained by US troops when he attempted to enter the Green Zone, the heavily fortified area near downtown Baghdad where parliament is held and the US embassy is situated. Wire services report that he said, 'I don't speak English and so I said to the Iraqi translator with them, "Tell them that I am a member of parliament", and he replied, "To hell with you, we are Americans".' Hearts and minds. Hearts and minds. Not enough translators. Not enough troops.... [Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal] 4:04:31 PM     Gurk!. Not good: FT.com / World / International economy - US inflation rising faster than expected: By Christopher Swann and Andrew Balls in Washington: US inflation rose at twice the pace economists had been expecting in March, further reducing the chances that there will be any respite this year from rising interest rates. The headline consumer price index climbed 0.6 per cent - boosted by a 4 per cent rise in energy prices. Over the past year consumer prices have increased 3.1 per cent. But it was the rise in underlying inflation that most alarmed analysts. Core inflation - excluding food and energy - climbed by 0.4 per cent, double the increase economists had been forecasting. The data comes a week after weak retail sales and consumer confidence figures, raising the prospect that the Federal Reserve may be sandwiched between rising inflation and weaker consumption...... [Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal] 4:03:13 PM     Rove: media not so liberal. Take that, Tom DeLay! "I'm not sure I've talked about the liberal media," Rove said when a student inquired -- a decision he said he made "consciously." The press is generally liberal, he argued, but "I think it's less liberal than it is oppositional." The argument -- similar to the one that former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer made in his recent book -- is nuanced, nonpartisan and, to the ears of many journalists, right on target. "Reporters now see their role less as discovering facts and fair-mindedly reporting the truth and more as being put on the earth to afflict the comfortable, to be a constant thorn of those in power, whether they are Republican or Democrat," Rove said. His indictment of the media -- delivered as part of Washington College's Harwood Lecture Series, named for the late Washington Post editor and writer Richard Harwood -- had four parts: that there's been an explosion in the number of media outlets; that these outlets have an insatiable demand for content; that these changes create enormous competitive pressure; and that journalists have increasingly adopted an antagonistic attitude toward public officials. Beyond that, Rove argued that the press pays too much attention to polls and "horse-race" politics, and covers governing as if it were a campaign. Riffing off Rove's comments, my complaints against the press is that they weren't oppositional enough. They looked at Bush's poll numbers and became afraid. Afraid to question Bush's Iraq claims. Afraid to question the numbers in his medicare plan. Afraid to question claims that we're winning the war on terror (remember, Bush killed the annual report that would've shown the opposite). Afraid to question, period. When it's trendy, the press will pile on an embattled politician, be it Clinton, Lott, or DeLay. But few are willing to stick their neck out and ask the questions when they most matter -- like in the runup to a war that will cost thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars. [Daily Kos] 4:01:49 PM     Martin Wolf on "Global Imbalances". He writes: FT.com / Comment & analysis / Columnists - US deficits aren't just China's problem : If creditors face an endless stream of additional borrowing and a good chance of default at the end of it, they should refuse to throw good money after bad. They will then impose huge costs on the debtor. This balance of financial terror, as it has been called, characterises the current huge flows of finance to the US. Carefully thought through economic policy is needed if the world is to extricate itself from this predicament. Alas, we can rely on the administration of George W. Bush not to provide it. So it proved at this weekend's meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrial countries. The communiqué remarked that "we emphasise that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries and areas that lack such flexibility".... Mr Snow is not the organ-grinder of US economic policy but the monkey.... As Nouriel Roubini of New York University promptly responded, the US attack on one of its principal creditors is playing with fire. In the past two years, he argues, three quarters of the US fiscal deficit has been financed by foreign central... [Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal] 7:00:04 AM     Confusion. The Los Angeles Times has Khaled el-Masri's story on the front page this morning. There's very little new here.  The Guardian and the New York Times ran essentially the same story back in January. Not that I'm complaining. The more... [Body and Soul] 6:51:26 AM

© Copyright 2005 Michael Mussington. Last update: 5/1/2005; 4:29:08 AM.